Research Topic and Instructions

This research assignment requires analysis of economic data and policies in a manner that displays advanced understating of the topics and models/theories presented in the Introduction to Economics course. The assignment has 2 major parts. Each part contains multiple components. Please address both parts and each of the specified components in sufficient detail in one comprehensive research paper. You must correctly use most of the relevant key concepts and models/theories learned in the course.

Part I: Description of the State of the U.S. Economy

1. Describe the state of the U.S. Economy for the years between 2006 and now in terms of macroeconomic measures discussed in the course (GDP, unemployment, and inflation rates). Use data from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), http://www.recovery.gov, and other government agencies and departments, such as Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics), Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), etc and present the data in charts, graphs, or tables.
2. As you will notice from your data analysis, the economy passes through different phases and turns. Discuss the implications of a given state (for example, recession) in terms households, businesses, and the entire society as a whole. Share your thoughts as to why it is important for you to understand the different states through which the economy passes. Share personal examples and experiences.

Part II: Analysis of Economic Policies

1. In your analysis of the macroeconomic data, you will notice that the U.S. economy passed through a major recession. Based on research, discuss the underlying causes of the recession. Identify monetary and fiscal policies implemented by the Federal Reserve and the government to deal with the recession.
2. Evaluate the expected and actual effects of each policy. Your response needs to include the name of the policy, description of the policy, the year it is implemented, and discussion of expected and actual outcomes in terms of the GDP, unemployment and inflation rates.
3. After close observation of the different perspectives discussed in the course, share your position on the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies to deal with recession or inflation.
4. As part of the economy, each of us will be affected by the state of the economy and the actions policy makers take to stabilize or advance it. Conclude by sharing why understanding these actions and outcomes matter to you as an individual who is part of the economic system. How do they affect the society/economy? What could be done differently? Share personal examples and experiences.

General Guidelines

• The paper must be 850 – 1000 words long, typewritten, double-spaced, with 1” margins and 12pt. Times New Roman font. The paper must be written in essay format, using standard written English with a clear introduction and conclusion.
• You must use at least 4 credible sources to support your ideas (avoid sites such as Wikipedia, Investopedia, EHow, yahoo answers, etc. You can contact me or a librarian if you are not sure about the credibility a source)
• You must use APA-formatted in-text citations (It is important that you identify all items directly copied or paraphrased from other sources. Read DCCCD’s policy on plagiarism)
• You must include an APA-formatted reference page.
• This is a research paper:
  • Limit personal opinions on the issues.
  • Do not copy and paste basic definitions of concepts and descriptions of theories from the text or other sources; show the applications of these concepts in the real world.
  • The major portion (at least 80%) of the paper must to be written in your own words.
• Attach your research paper as an MS-Word file by the due date.

Explore Activity

FIELD TRIP

DUE DATE:

Week 8

PART 1

Ask a member of the Human Resources team (or the person who does the hiring) at your work what they see as the key characteristics of a successful manager. In the discussion thread, provide a summary, answering the following questions:

1. What company do you work for and what is the role of the individual you interviewed?

2. What are the key characteristics of a successful manager that your colleague described?

3. What are your thoughts on your colleague’s response?

OR

Find an article discussing the key characteristics of a successful manager. Post a link to the article in the discussion thread and provide a summary of the following:

1. What is the role and background of the author of the article?

2. What are the key characteristics of a successful manager detailed in the article?

3. What are your thoughts on these characteristics?

Hello, please see the below:

• Respond to each classmate’s discussion posting and write as if you were reviewing his or her posting in an academic journal. The response should therefore answer the questions as applicable:
  • Was your classmate’s reasoning articulate and logical? Were the facts correct?
  • Was the interpretation your classmate provided reasonable and consistent with experts in the field? Did your classmate defend the choices effectively?

The focus for your critical analysis is not whether you agree with your classmate, and is not to be a recap of all that was shared by your classmate, but is to academically critique how well his or her position was presented with points and counterpoints.

The response(s) should be 100 words in length and include the following article source properly cited and referenced in the write up:

http://ir.stthomas.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article…

& Ackerman-Anderson, L., & Anderson, D. (2010). The change leader’s roadmap: How to navigate your organization’s transformation (2nd ed.). San Francisco, CA: Pfeiffer.

The purpose of this assignment is to perform classification using
regression trees, interpret the results, and analyze whether or not the
information generated can be used to address a specific business
problem.

For this assignment, you will use the “Credit Card Defaults” data set
from the Topic Materials. Most data categories are self-explanatory.
Clarifying notes are as follows.

1. Limit_Balance: Balance limit on the credit card
2. Sex: Gender
3. Education: Highest level of education completed
4. Pay_Status1-3: Pay status in the previous 1 to 3 months, respectively
5. Pay_Amt_Prev1-3: Amount paid in the previous 1 to 3 months, respectively
6. Bill_Amt_Prev1-3: Amount billed in the previous 1 to 3 months, respectively
7. Default: Whether or not the individual defaulted on their credit card payment

You are an analyst for a credit card company. Management wants to
know if there are any early signs that indicate whether customers will
default on their credit cards. If these indicators can be identified,
then more scrutiny can be placed on customer transactions in an effort
to avoid losses. The rules to detect the potential for default must be
simple enough for management to understand and easily implemented as
part of the early default flagging system. Your task is to determine the
indicators and communicate your findings to management.

Question 1: Partition the data to create a training data set (70%) and test data set (30%).

Question 2: Build a single classification
tree with the training data and Default as the target. Include the
“Default Tree Model” output when submitting the answer.

1. Which variable(s) were used in the tree model?
2. How would you use the model to predict whether or not the customer will default?
3. What is the accuracy of the model when using the training and test
   data? Include the “Misclassification Table” outputs when submitting the
   answer.
4. Consider the following individual: Limit_Balance=5000, Sex=Male,
   Education=High School, Marital_Status=Married, Age=30, Pay_Status1=On
   Time, Pay_Status2=On Time, Pay_Status3=2 Mths Late, Pay_Amt_Prev1=0,
   Pay_Amt_Prev2=0, Pay_Amt_Prev3=0, Bill_Amt_Prev1=5000,
   Bill_Amt_Prev2=2500, Bill_Amt_Prev3=100. Based on the classification
   model, what is the predicted default outcome? Explain your answer.

Question 3: Predicting a default correctly
is more important than predicting a nondefault outcome. Therefore, the
focus of the modeling process should be weighted toward predicting
defaults accurately. One way to do this is by increasing the cost of
misclassifying a true default.

Rerun the model, but increase the cost of misclassifying a true
default by a factor of 5 vs. misclassifying a true nondefault as 1. Make
sure to set the minimum change in impurity to 0.01. Include the
“Default-weighted Tree Model” output when submitting the answer.

1. Which variable(s) were used in the tree model?
2. What is the accuracy of the model when using the training and test
   data? Include the “Misclassification Table” outputs when submitting the
   answer.
3. Consider the following individual: Limit_Balance=5000, Sex=Male,
   Education=High School, Marital_Status=Married, Age=30, Pay_Status1=On
   Time, Pay_Status2=On Time, Pay_Status3=2 Mths Late, Pay_Amt_Prev1=0,
   Pay_Amt_Prev2=0, Pay_Amt_Prev3=0, Bill_Amt_Prev1=5000,
   Bill_Amt_Prev2=2500, Bill_Amt_Prev3=100. Based on the classification
   model, what is the predicted default outcome? Explain your answer.

Question 4: Based on the two classification tree models, which one should be used if the goal is to more accurately predict defaulters?

Question 5: Based upon your analysis, what
are the indicators of whether or not customers will default on their
credit cards? Discuss how management can use this information as part of
the early default flagging system. Present your finding in the form of a
250-word executive summary that includes relevant data, charts, and
tables to validate the conclusions presented.

General Requirements:

Submit the answers to Questions 1-4 and the executive summary as Word documents.

APA format is not required, but solid academic writing is expected.