week3, and 2nd part Humanities Assignment Help

Scenario: You are deciding among three investments, as you do for Case 4. You have heard of an expert who has a highly reliable “track record” in the correct identification of favorable vs. unfavorable market conditions. You are now considering whether to consult this “expert.” Therefore, you need to determine whether it would be worth paying the expert’s fee to get his prediction. You recognize that you need to do further analysis to determine the value of the information that the expert might provide.

In order to simplify the analysis, you have decided to look at two possible outcomes for each alternative (instead of three). You are interested in whether the market will be Favorable or Unfavorable, so you have collapsed the Medium and Low outcomes. Here are the three alternatives with their respective payoffs and probabilities.

Option A: Real estate development. This is a risky opportunity with the possibility of a high payoff, but also with no payoff at all. You have reviewed all of the possible data for the outcomes in the next 10 years and these are your estimates of the Net Present Value (NPV) of the payoffs and probabilities:

High/Favorable NPV: $7.5 million, Pr = 0.5

Unfavorable NPV: $2.0 million, Pr = 0.5

Option B: Retail franchise for Just Hats, a boutique-type store selling fashion hats for men and women. This also is a risky opportunity but less so than Option A. It has the potential for less risk of failure, but also a lower payoff. You have reviewed all of the possible data for the outcomes in the next 10 years and these are your estimates of the NPV of the payoffs and probabilities.

High/Favorable NPV: $4.5 million, Pr = 0.75

Unfavorable NPV: $2.5 million, Pr = 0.25

Option C: High Yield Municipal Bonds. This option has low risk and is assumed to be a Certainty. So there is only one outcome with probability of 1.0:

NPV: $2.25 million, Pr = 1.0

You have contacted the expert and received a letter stating his track record which you have checked out using several resources. Here is his stated track record:

	True State of the Market
Expert Prediction	Favorable	Unfavorable
Predicts “Favorable”	.9	.3
Predicts “Unfavorable”	.1	.7

You realize that this situation is a bit complicated since it requires the expert to analyze and predict the state of two different markets: the real estate market and the retail hat market. You think through the issues of probabilities and how to calculate the joint probabilities of both markets going up, both going down, or one up and the other down. Based on your original estimates of success, here are your calculations of the single probabilities and joint probabilities of the markets.

Probabilities	Favorable	Unfavorable
A: Real Estate	0.50	0.50
B: Just Hats	0.75	0.25

Joint Probabilities
A Fav, B Fav (A+, B+)	0.375
A Unf, B Unf (A-, B-)	0.125
A Fav, B Unf (A+, B-)	0.125
A Unf, B Fav (A-, B+)	0.375

Finally, after a great deal of analysis and calculation, you have determined the Posterior probabilities of Favorable and Unfavorable Markets for the Real Estate business and the boutique hat business.

		Real Estate		Just Hats
		F	U	F	U
0.45	says “F/F”	0.75	0.25	0.90	0.10
0.15	says “F/U”	0.75	0.25	0.30	0.70
0.30	says “U/F”	0.125	0.875	0.90	0.10
0.10	says “U/U”	0.125	0.875	0.30	0.70

For example, this table says that there is 45% chance that the expert will predict Favorable for both markets (F/F), and when he makes this prediction, there is a 75% chance that the Real Estate market will be favorable and 25% chance that it won’t, and also a 90% chance that the Hat market will be Favorable and 10% chance it won’t.

You have developed a Decision Tree showing the original collapsed solution and also showing an expanded Decision Tree for evaluating the value of the expert’s information. You need to enter the probabilities into this tree to see if the expert’s information will increase the overall expected value of your decision. Download the Excel file with the incomplete Decision Tree: Decision Tree for BUS520 SLP 4

Assignment

Complete the information in the Decision Tree in the Excel file. Determine the Expected NPV of the decision if you were to consult the Expert. Does use of the Expert increase the value of your analysis? If so, by how much?

Develop a PowerPoint presentation to your private investment company and explain your analysis and your recommendation. Provide clear rationale/ justification for your decision. Use comment feature in PowerPoint to present each slide.

Analysis

Conduct accurate and complete analysis in Excel. Check the following link on PowerPoint presentation:

https://support.office.com/en-US/article/PowerPoint-training-40e8c930-cb0b-40d8-82c4-bd53d3398787

Required:

• Meet Length requirements: 10-15 slides (not including Cover and Reference pages).
• Provide a brief introduction to/background of the problem.
• Show analysis that supports Excel analysis and provides thorough discussion of assumptions, rationale, and logic used.
• Offer meaningful and accurate recommendation(s).
• comments on slides.

PART 2: (10 x slide PPT with note pages). THE PROJECT EXPECTATIONS:

1. It has been determined that over 90% of the raw intelligence data obtained by professional intelligence organizations is gained through open source intelligence collection.

2. The intelligence cycle is formally used by just about every organization in the world to one degree or another. This includes the Boy Scouts (national office in Washington, DC developing lobbying efforts.) and world religions, not to mention the FSB, the FBI, the US Department of Agriculture and so forth. Intelligence is not, and never has been, a function limited to military use. Intelligence is a vital force multiplier for every organization.

3. Open Source collection demands that collector knows where and how to look. Open Source collection is not limited to print or electronic sources. It also involves access to any openly promulgated information.

4. Once you begin collecting raw data, then determine what your main point of emphasis will be. Assume I am your boss, or your client. Assume I have assigned you this project: to learn about organization X. You choose the reason after you gather raw data since I do not know, nor do you perhaps, what exactly you will be able to gather in the few weeks assigned to this course. I want you thinking as an adversary. What information does our organization present that others can gather to harm us. In researching, don’t forget about the CEOs and their families, satellite photos, blueprints, activities, etc. What you find out is information that an adversary can use to their benefit.

5. Here is the process you should follow:

*identify a target organization you wish to investigate.
*begin collecting raw open source intel data on that target.
*the target may be one of personal or professional interest to you.
*use as many possible open source conduits as possible.
*do not just stick to books or the internet. Search. Use satellite photos, search tax records, etc.
*collect and then organize your data.
*determine your approach to this target based on how much data you have collected.
*analyze your data: what does it tell you?
*compose a PPT briefing (approximately 10 slides) with detailed note pages directed to me that explains your findings, and that is supported by your raw data and analysis. Accompany your PPT with a word document (approximately 3-5 pages double spaced in Chicago format) that covers the four areas of your topic development listed above.
*upload this PPT briefing and word document to the assignments section by the end of Week 7.

6. Do not substitute graphic heavy PPT slides in place of detailed analysis and text in the note pages all in proper Chicago author-date formatting.

7. An excellent example is attached for your review. This is not to intimidate, but rather to demonstrate how far one can go with this project. NOTE: Its format is not the same as above, i.e. the word document doesn’t follow the target choice format above and the PPT presentation doesn’t have note pages. You are to follow the formats and expectations above.

IMPORTANT NOTE: This is a passive OSINT collection exercise. Do not actively participate or interact in anyway with the organization or individual in order to gain intelligence. For example, do not attempt to join a terrorist organization in order to gain intelligence. Only that which is readily available to you on the internet or in a library should be pursued. Do not join a site, engage directly with, or give your information to any entity in order to produce this project.

Citation and Reference Style

Students will follow the Chicago Style as the sole citation and reference style used in written work submitted as part of coursework to the course. See http://www.apus.edu/Online-Library/tutorials/chicago.htm. A quick guide may be found at: The Chicago Manual of Style, 17th ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2017 available online at:http://www.chicagomanualofstyle.org/home.html The Author-Date system is recommended.https://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/717/10/

All written submissions should be submitted in Times New Roman 12pt font with 1” margins, typewritten in double-spaced format. College-level work is expected to be free of grammar, usage, and style errors.

I have attached an example.

• Select a population health issue of interest to you and identify the population affected by the issue.
• Locate two scholarly articles, each of which provides a description of an effective health advocacy campaign that addresses your issue. The articles need to focus on two different advocacy campaigns.
• Analyze the attributes of the two campaigns to determine what made them effective.
• Reflect on a policy you could propose or suggest a change to a current policy to improve the health of the population you selected.
• Consider how you could develop an advocacy campaign, applying the attributes identified in similar, effective campaigns.

To complete:

For the Part 1 application (approximately 3–4 pages of content with a title page and references in APA format) address the following:

• Describe your selected population health issue and the population affected by this issue.
• Summarize the two advocacy campaigns you researched in this area.
• Explain the attributes that made those campaigns effective.
• Begin to develop a plan for a health advocacy campaign that seeks to create a new policy or change an existing policy with regard to the issue and population you selected. Be sure to include in your plan:

A description of the public health issue and proposed policy solution

• Specific objectives for the policy you want to be implemented
• Begin to substantiate of your proposed campaign by data and evidence

My chosen fictitious company is a restaurant.

Marketing Plan Project Instructions

For your Marketing Plan Project, you need to create a fictitious company with a product (or line of products) or service that you want to analyze and promote. You can make up your product/service or use an existing one. If you use an existing one, you may want to add something that makes it unique. Just look around your house or office and you will find many of them.

There is a great example of a Marketing Plan in your book (page 60) that you can use as a model.

Basic Guidelines:

1. View the Marketing Plan Project Grading Rubric to understand how you will be evaluated.
2. Please approach the project with a “real world – manager’s” mentality. How would you do it if you were faced with this task in the real world? How would you present it? What would you include? There are many examples that you can use as guidance on the Internet. There is no reason to ask how you should do the project.
3. There is not a right or wrong format to do the project. Please make sure that your project:
   1. Contains a minimum of 2,500 words.
   2. Is easy to read and understand: The use of graphics is highly recommended.
   3. Is appealing to your audience. Make it interesting.
   4. Follows a format. You can use APA (6th) edition or MLA. Choose one format and follow it. Please do not mix formats.
   5. Cite all your sources
4. Make sure you touch on all the elements mentioned in the Marketing Plan Outline.
5. Analyze and summarize your work.
6. View the Suggested Marketing Plan Outline and/or the Detailed Alternative Marketing Plan Outline

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Additional Sources:

There are literally thousands of sources such as books, libraries, and the Internet that would help you with your Marketing Plan Project. The following is a list of some Internet sources that I have found and believe to have accurate relevant information to help you with your project. You are not limited to these sources. Should you use other sources, please make sure to check their validity before using their information.

QuickMBA

Mplans

KnowThis.com – How to Write a Marketing Plan

MSBDC Boston Regional Office and Minority Business Center – Marketing Plan

wikiHow to Create a Marketing Plan